$(20$ pts$)$ How do you make a forecast? What kinds of forecasting methods would you preferred to use in this case? Why? Develop a forecast of annual red table wine sales for the $1996$ grape harvest year $($i$.$e$.,$ October $1996-$ September $1997).$

$(20$ pts$)$ Develop monthly forecasts for the same period $($i$.$e$.,$ October $1996-$ September $1997)$

$(20$ pts$)$ What are "Trend," "Seasoriality," and "Seasonal Indices"? How do you calculate Seasonal Indices?

$(20$ pts$)$ How can you assess the accuracy of your forecasting procedures ex ante?

$(20$ pts$)$ Should Northern Napa Valley Winery Inc. sell all excess grapes from $1996$ harvest to TransContinental? Why?