Question: 2. Bayesian Reasoning uncertainty_rule rl uncertainty rule r4 if the cloud is rounded (LS19.0, LN.05) if the cloud is nimbus (LS27, LN 3) then the

2. Bayesian Reasoning uncertainty_rule rl uncertainty rule r4 if the cloud is rounded (LS19.0, LN.05) if the cloud is nimbus (LS27, LN 3) then the cloud is cumulus. and the cloud is stratus (LS1.7, LN .7) and the cloud is cumulus (LS1.6, LN 0.1) then the forecast is rain uncertainty_ rule r2 if the cloud is dark (LS19.0, LN.05) then the cloud is nimbus uncertainty_rule r5 if the wind is west (LS2.0, LN.7) then the forecast is rain. uncertainty rule r3 uncertainty.rule r6 if the cloud is layered (LS 19.0, LN.05) if the pressure is low (LS5.0, LN.01) then the cloud is stratus. then the forecast is rain. Q1: Is the cloud rounded? Q2: Is the cloud dark? Q3: Is the cloud layered? Q4: Is the wind direction west? Q5: Is the pressure low? A1: (Definitely) No. A2: (Definitely) Yes A3: (Definitely) No. A4: Unknown (50%). A4: (Definitely) Yes. Conflict resolution: FCFS Please note LS and LN values are provided for each condition separately Calculate P(rain), given that all prior probabilities are 0.5. Show the propagation of (updated odds whenever a rule fires). belief 2. Bayesian Reasoning uncertainty_rule rl uncertainty rule r4 if the cloud is rounded (LS19.0, LN.05) if the cloud is nimbus (LS27, LN 3) then the cloud is cumulus. and the cloud is stratus (LS1.7, LN .7) and the cloud is cumulus (LS1.6, LN 0.1) then the forecast is rain uncertainty_ rule r2 if the cloud is dark (LS19.0, LN.05) then the cloud is nimbus uncertainty_rule r5 if the wind is west (LS2.0, LN.7) then the forecast is rain. uncertainty rule r3 uncertainty.rule r6 if the cloud is layered (LS 19.0, LN.05) if the pressure is low (LS5.0, LN.01) then the cloud is stratus. then the forecast is rain. Q1: Is the cloud rounded? Q2: Is the cloud dark? Q3: Is the cloud layered? Q4: Is the wind direction west? Q5: Is the pressure low? A1: (Definitely) No. A2: (Definitely) Yes A3: (Definitely) No. A4: Unknown (50%). A4: (Definitely) Yes. Conflict resolution: FCFS Please note LS and LN values are provided for each condition separately Calculate P(rain), given that all prior probabilities are 0.5. Show the propagation of (updated odds whenever a rule fires). belief

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