2. Following data is sourced from the regulatory authorities. Usingthis data, build the below-given forecasting models:

• Naive Forecast
• 2 Months moving Average
• Exponential Smoothing (alpha =0.3)

Out of the above three, which model will give the most accurate results( Using MAD- Mean Absolute Deviation to compare the models)

Category	Year	Production
Light Commercial Vehicles	31-03-2006	68,922
Light Commercial Vehicles	31-03-2007	65,756
Light Commercial Vehicles	31-03-2008	83,195
Light Commercial Vehicles	31-03-2009	1,08,917
Light Commercial Vehicles	31-03-2010	1,38,890
Light Commercial Vehicles	31-03-2011	1,71,788
Light Commercial Vehicles	31-03-2012	2,25,724
Light Commercial Vehicles	31-03-2013	2,54,049
Light Commercial Vehicles	31-03-2014	2,24,587
Light Commercial Vehicles	31-03-2015	3,17,423
Light Commercial Vehicles	31-03-2016	4,08,193
Light Commercial Vehicles	31-03-2017	5,44,335
Light Commercial Vehicles	31-03-2018	5,53,184