2. Reflexive Design.A novice program analyst (not from Metro State's MPNA-MPA-MNLM-MS ADC/CODC graduate programs) navely estimated the program effect using a before-and-after reflexive design.

a. How will he/she estimate the program effect using this design? Use Figure 1 to derive the equation.Note that the observed pre- and post-program outcomes of participants are represented by the solid blue line. [2 points]

b. Will the analyst's estimate of the treatment/program effect include a positive or negative bias? That is, will it overestimate (positive bias) or underestimate (negative bias) the true program effect? How large is this bias? Use Figure 1 to estimate the size of this bias. [3 points]

c. Discuss the reason(s) why the estimate from a before-and-after study usually includes a bias. [5 points]

Figure 1 Participants Y 2 Y1 Income Yo Baseline study Program Butmore Time Using the counterfactual (or potential outcomes) approach. how will you estimate tha trua