#28 (I need help with part B only) Part A Consider the following actual demand and forecast data for ARX AG a national distributor of commercial blends and custom formulated fertilizers for traditional and organic crop nutrition needs. All data is in tons.

Month	Forecast	Actual Demand
1	1900	1890
2	1892	1840
3	1850	1838
4	1840	1831
5	1833	1830
6	1831	1800
7	1806	1780
8	1785	1740
9	1749	1732
10
11
12

Develop a forecast for month 10 using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .8. Note that the initial forecast of 1900 was not derived using exponential smoothing. Select the answer that best matches yours.

A) 1750 B) 1773 C) 1800 D) 1735 (answer) E) 1780 Part B Continuing with ARX AG what is the Mean Absolute Deviation of the Forecast?

A) 24.38 B) 23.89 C) 22.75 D) 25.08 E) 24.92

__PRESENT