$3\mathrm{.}12.$Production Man...a$)$ Briefly define production management. Give and explain the three $(3)$ critical skills of theproduction manager.$[8$ MARKS$]$b$)$ JAZZY company is comparing the accuracy of two forecasting methods. Forecasts usingboth methods are shown below along with the actual values for January through May. Tocompare these methods, the company also uses a tracking signal with $\backslash$pm $4$ limits to decidewhen a forecast should be reviewed.iii.i$.$Monthii.Jan.Feb.Marchiii.AprilMayMONTHJanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovCalculate the Mean Absolute Deviation $($MAD$)$Mean Square Error $($MSE$)$a$)$ The primary function of an operations manager is to guide the system by decision making, list and explainthe two categories in decision making.$[4$ marks$]$Predict the best forecasting method? Aeted $6$b$)$ The table below shows the monthly orders a chocolate manufacturing company at OLAM Ghanalimited. As a production manager of the company, forecast the monthly orders $($units$)$ tillNovember using the na$$ve method of forecasting.ActualsalesMonth Sales$330426532629$Actual$7315676586775$a three$-$month moving average$9010075$A $3-$month Simple Moving AverageORDERS PERMONTHA S$-$month Simple Moving Average$1205075$c$)$ Using the same table in $($i$)$ create a forecast for November using:$2811076$ SMethod A Method BForecastForecast$90130323030110$a$)$ List and explain the four historical patterns needed to be considered during forecasting.b$)$ Given the following data, calculate forccasts for months $4,5,6,$ and $7$ using,weodSt $63-$uPage $1$ of $428$C$1264|252927$an exponential smoothing forecast with an alpha of $0\mathrm{.}3.$ Assume a forecast of $61$ formonth $3[3$ MARKS$]29$plot a graph for the demands versus period and include the actual, moving average andthe smoothing constants and discuss the effect of the smoothing constants.ofcaali$(5$ Marks$][5$ Marks$][2$ Marks$]$Forecast $3-$Month Forecast ExponentialMoving Average Smoothing$|4$ marks$]|6$ inark$|6$ marka$[8$ MARKS$](3$ MARKS$][4$ MARKS$]$