3 marks for showing possible outcomes5 marks for showing work1 mark for a correct strategy to find final probability1 mark for correct final probability

The Problem: Zared plays basketball on his high school team. One of the things he needs to practice is his free throws. On his first shot, there is a probability of 0.6 that he will make the basket. If he makes a basket, his confidence grows and the probability he makes the next shot increases by 0.05. If he misses the shot, the probability he makes the next one decreases by 0.05. He takes 5 shots. What is the probability he makes at least 3 shots? (Hint: a tree diagram might be a helpful strategy) Marks may be awarded as outlined below. If your teacher plans to use a different strategy to evaluate your work they will inform you before you start the assignment. Unless you are instructed differently this assignment is worth 10 marks. Use the following information to guide your work