Question: 3. Two independent methods of forecasting based on judgment and experience have been prepared for monthly sales of Widgets. Forecast #1 Forecast #2 (A -

3. Two independent methods of forecasting based on judgment and experience have been prepared for monthly sales of Widgets.

Forecast #1

Forecast #2

(A - F)

(A - F)

Month

Sales

Forecast

Error

Error2

[e]

Forecast

Error

Error2

[e]

1

770

773

-3

9

3

769

1

1

1

2

789

785

4

16

4

783

6

36

6

3

794

792

2

4

2

792

4

780

784

794

-14

196

14

5

768

772

-4

16

4

774

6

772

768

766

6

36

6

7

760

763

-3

9

3

759

1

1

1

8

775

771

4

16

4

771

4

16

4

9

786

786

0

0

0

788

10

790

788

784

6

36

6

a. Compute the MAD and MSE for each forecast, does either method seem superior? Explain.

b. Compute a tracking signal for the 10th month for each forecast. What does it show? (Use action limits of + or - 4.)

c. Compute 2s control limits for each forecast. What do they show?

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