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The the Problem 6: Given the forecast demand and actual demand for 10-foot fishing boats, compute the tracking signal and MAD. Year Forecast Actual Demand Demand 1 78 71 2 75 80 3 83 101 84 84 4 5 88 60 6 85 73 Problem: 7 Over the past year Meredith and Smunt Manufacturing had annual sales of 10,000 portable water pumps. The average quarterly sales for the past 5 years have averaged: spring 4,000, summer 3,000, fall 2,000 and winter 1,000. Compute the quarterly index. Problem: 8 Using the data in Problem, Meredith and Smunt Manufacturing expects sales of pumps to grow by 10% next year. Compute next year's sales and the sales for each quarter. Auto sales at Carmen's Chevrolet are shown below. Develop a 3-week moving average. Week Auto Sales 1 8 2 10 3 9 4 11 5 10 6 13 7 Problem 2: Carmen's decides to forecast auto sales by weighting the three weeks as follows: Period Weights Applied 3 Last week 2 Twoweeks ago 1 Three weeks ago 6 Total Problem 3: A firm uses simple exponential smoothing with a = 0.1 to forecast demand. The forecast for the week of January 1 was 500 units whereas the actual demand turned out to be 450 units. Calculate the demand forecast for the week of January 8. Problem 4: Exponential smoothing is used to forecast automobile battery sales. Two value 1 A firm uses simple exponential smoothing with a = 0.1 to forecast demand. The forecast for the week of January 1 was 500 units whereas the actual demand turned out to be 450 units. Calculate the demand forecast for the week of January 8. Problem 4: Exponential smoothing is used to forecast automobile battery sales. Two value 1 of a are examined, a = 0.8 and a = 0.5. Evaluate the accuracy of each smoothing constant. Which is preferable? (Assume the forecast for January was 22 batteries.) Actual sales are given below: Month Actual Forecast Battery Sales 22 January 20 February 21 March 15 April 14 May 13 June 16 Mr. Ratchet believes he can purchase a small computer trouble shooting device, which will allow him to find and fix a problem in the incredible (at least to his customers! time of 1 hour. He will, however, have to spend an extra hour each morning adjusting the computerized diagnostic device. What will be the impact on his productivity if he purchases the device? Ref: Robbins and Coulter (2004) Fig 1.1: Characteristics of Organizations Any organization has a purpose to start business. This is typically expressed in terms of goal or set of goals. Organization is totally composed of people like workers to top managers. Fig 1.1 shows the characteristics of organizations. If people involved in the 4 organization, assigning responsibility and authority to people arise naturally. Who will lead the team? And who shall report to the top management? systematic structure in organization answers these questions. It involves creating rules and regulations, identifying some members as leader and giving them authority over other workers. The organization refers to an entity that has a distinct purpose includes people or members and has a systematic structure. Organizations are broadly classified into two namely formal and informal. A formal organization is a stable set of a description of the organization structure and the rules like policies, regulations and procedures that make up an organization. The army and large corporations are structured very formally for an instance. The informal organization is a concept in management practice that denotes the network, unrelated to the firm's formal authority structure. It is the aggregate of personal and social relationships that arise spontaneously as people associate with one another environment. The informal organization can make the formal organization more effective by providing support to management, stability to the environment and useful communication channels. To begin with a simple example, this kind of relationship may exist entirely within a given institution as when a board or council elite group may have an informal, private existence, as well as its public, official, institutionalized existence. When the councilors of corporation, for example, meets informally at the mayor's home or gathers for a dinner at the hotel, this organization becomes an informal organization. The relationship between formal and informal becomes easier to understand while introducing an influential figure, not member of the institutional group, who come in to the lunch, dinner, or gathering of friends and play a part in policy making, the interrelationship begins to be more complex. Here we can say that informal groups representing combinations of formal. TOL llle wee January 8. Problem 4: Exponential smoothing is used to forecast automobile battery sales. Two value of a are examined, a = 0.8 and a=0.5. Evaluate the accuracy of each smoothing constant. Which is preferable? (Assume the forecast for January was 22 batteries.) Actual sales are given below: Month Actual Forecast Battery Sales 22 January 20 February 21 March 15 April 14 May 13 June 16