4. Tronsaction exposure based on value at risk Suppose that Colorado Co., a U.S. based MNC, seeks to assess its transaction exposure using the value-at-risk (VaR) method over the nedt quarter. It is primarily concerned about its exposure in euros, as it has determined that the remainder of its portfolio is such that the effects of curresicy fluctuations typically offset. Suppose that, based on historical data, it has determined that the expected change in the value of the euro is 2.00% over the next quarter and that the standard deviation of these changes is 1.00%. Colorado assumes that these changes are normally distributed, such that the maximum quartely loss lies within 1.65 standard deviations below the expected change with 95% confidence. Under this scenario, the maximum one-quarter loss due to transaction exposure is approximately with 95\% confidence: Now suppose that Colorado would like to estimate the maximum loss with 99% confidence, meaning that the biggest loss lies within 2.23 standarit deviations of the expected change in the euro. Al else remains unchanged. Under this scenario the maximum one-quarter loss due to transaction exposure is approcimately with 9948 confidence Based on these resulte, the larger contidence level used, the the maximum loss will be