Question: 4. Two independent methods of forecasting based on judgment and experience have been prepared each month for the past 10 months. The forecasts and actual

4. Two independent methods of forecasting based

4. Two independent methods of forecasting based on judgment and experience have been prepared each month for the past 10 months. The forecasts and actual sales are as follows: Forecast Forecast Month Sales 660 679 684 670 658 662 650 665 661 675 680 674 660 658 651 661 674 678 659 677 682 688 664 660 649 665 678 678 676 680 a. Compute the MSE and MAD for each forecast. Does either forecast seem superior? Explain. b. Compute MAPE for each forecast. C. Prepare a naive forecast for periods 2 through 11 using the given sales data. Compute each of the following: (1) MSE, (2) MAD, (3) tracking signal at month 10, and (4) 2s control limits. How do the naive results compare with the other two forecasts? 5. Lovely Lawns, Inc., intends to use sales of lawn fertilizer to predict lawn mower sales. The store manager estimates a probable six-week lag between fertilizer sales and mower sales. The pertinent data are: Number of Mowers Sold (six-week lag) 12 10 13 Fertilizer Sales (tons) 1.9 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 2 1.5 14 10 13 2.2 1.7 12 13 14 1.9 11 a. Determine the correlation between the two variables. Does it appear that a relationship between these variables will yield reasonable predictions? Explain. b. Obtain a linear regression line for the data. C. Predict expected lawn mower sales for the first week in August, given fertilizer sales six weeks earlier of 2 tons

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