Question: 4.17 Refer to Solved Problem 4.1. Using smoothing con- stants of 0.6 and 0.9, develop forecasts for the sales of Chevrolet Camaros. What effect did

4.17 Refer to Solved Problem 4.1. Using smoothing con- stants of 0.6 and 0.9, develop forecasts for the sales of Chevrolet Camaros. What effect did the smoothing constant have on the Ma Jur forecast? Use MAD to determine which of the three smoothing con- stants (0.3, 0.6, or 0.9) gives the most accurate forecast. Px dor the following actual (A) and forecast (F. SOLUTION Year Forecast SOLVED PROBLEM 4.1 Sales of Chevrolet's popular Camaro grew steadily at auto dealer- ships in Alberta during five years (see table below). The sales man- ager had predicted in 2010 that 2011 sales would be 410 Camaros. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of a = 0.30, develop forecasts for 2012 through 2016. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sales Forecast Year 2011 2012 2013 410.0 422.0 = 410 + 0.3(450 - 410) 443.9 = 422 + 0.3(495 - 422) 466.1 443.9 + 0.3(518 - 443.9) 495.2 - 466.1 + 0.3(563 - 466.1) 521.8 = 495.2 + 0.3(584 - 495.2) 410 2015 450 495 2016 2014 518 563 584 2015 2016

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