$5$

$0$

$($i$)$

What type of pattern exists in the data?

$$

$($b$)$ Develop a three$-$week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week $8.$ If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation.

MSE: $$ The forecast for week $8$

$($c$)$ Use $a=0\mathrm{.}2$ to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week $8.$ If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation.

MSE: $$

The forecast for week $8$ : $$

$($d$)$ Compare the three$-$week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using $=0\mathrm{.}2.$ Which appears to provide the b

$$

$($e$)$ Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient $$ that results in the smallest MSE.

Do not round intermediate calculations. Use a two$-$decimal digit precision for the exponential smoothing coefficient.

$a=$

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