6. Sensitivity and scenario analysis Different techniques for analyzing project risk require different input variables and assumptions. The procedure in which a set of key elements affecting the expected value are changed to study the effect on the expected value is called analysis. Martina is a risk analyst. She is conducting a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the riskiness of a new project that her company is considering investing in. Her risk analysis report includes the sensitivity curve shown on the graph. ? 11.5, 9.9 O O Base Case NPV NPV (Millions of dollars) O -20 -15 Base Case Units Sold O -10 0 5 10 15 CHANGES IN UNITS SOLD (Percent) 20 This curve implies that the project is very sensitive to changes in units sold. The project's NPV is likely to become negative if the number of units sold decreases by Along with the sensitivity analysis, Martina is including a scenario analysis for the project in her report, giving the probability of the project generating a negative NPV. Her report includes the following information about the scenario analysis: Data Collected Outcome NPV; Pessimistic -$3.50 million Most likely $5.62 million Optimistic $11.34 million Probability (Pj) 0.20 0.45 0.35 Complete the missing information in Martina's report: The expected net present value of the project is Standard deviation of the net present value (the NPV of the project is likely to vary by) million