Question: 9 Can you write a reason for the answer? Background: Wes and Steve are partners in a lunch truck company that operates a central kitchen

9
Can you write a reason for the answer?
9 Can you write a reason for the answer?
9 Can you write a reason for the answer?
9 Can you write a reason for the answer?
Background: Wes and Steve are partners in a lunch truck company that operates a central kitchen and operates lunch trucks that travel to various locations in Philadelphia, Monday-Friday. The lunch trucks deliver pre-packaged healthy sandwich and salad alternatives, fresh fruit and pre-packaged low-fat desserts and canned beverages. Together, the partners have to make many decisions about how to structure the operational aspects of the business so that it is cost effective, efficient and profitable. Current Situation: Analysis 1: Steve and Wes have been investigating new, larger locations for their central kitchen (they have outgrown their current space). They have identified 3 locations for final consideration and have developed a payoff table (next page) that identifies COSTS for various levels of demand (low, moderate and high). They have also estimated that the probability of low demand is 20% and high demand is 60%. Using the cost payoff table and likelihoods provided on page 2, determine the following and answer questions shown: Maximin choice Maximax choice LaPlace choice EMVs for each option Analysis 2: Wes is investigating whether to expand the company's lunch truck stops by either 3 or 5 locations. He has developed a profit decision tree and supporting data as found on page 3. With the data provided, complete the decision tree analysis and indicate his preferred course of action. COST Payoff Location 9 R S Table Demand Moderate 60,000 50,000 80,000 Low 100,000 20,000 15,000 High 30,000 110,000 150,000 9. Wes has developed the following PROFIT decision tree to decide whether to secure 3 or 5 locations for lunch stops. Complete the tree below and select the decision to be made and corresponding EMV. Assume that the likelihood of low demand is .60 and high demand is.40; the likelihood of a very successful campaign is.70. YOU MUST SHOW ALL MATH AND PRUNING NOTATIONS BELOW TO EARN POINTS. Very Successful $400,000 Promo Low D Successful $300,000 3 Locations Nothing High D $200,000 $500,000 Very Successful $500,000 Promo Low D Successful $400,000 Nothing $300,000 5 Locations High D $600,000 Decision: # Locations (1 pt) EMV: $ (3 pts)

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