A 65-year old female client is considering either purchasing a single-premium insurance policy or investing in a tax-free municipal bond. The fundamental feature of this insurance policy is that the premium is paid all at once when the policy is written, and this one-payment feature does not run afoul of any tax codes. In her case, each dollar of premium generates 3.6914 dollars of insurance to be paid at her death. On the other hand "buy now and hold until death" investment strategy in tax-free municipal bonds gives return at annual rate of 7.1% (and all of the dividends associated with these bonds can be reinvested at this rate). Thus, in two years the bonds would be worth (1.071)2 = 1.147 dollars per each dollar invested, and, e.g., in 12.5 years they would be worth (1.071)12.5 = 2.357 dollars per each dollar invested.

If one million dollars is invested in the tax-free municipal bond with "buy now and hold until death" investment strategy, as described above, what is the probability that the value of investment at time of death will be less than two million dollars?