A A B D E G H K L M N O P Q R R Table of Contents 1 2 3 4 4 Period Week 1 2 5 5 6 Forecast Method Exponential Smoothing a = 0.1 Forecast Method 2 Period Moving Average Forecast Method Weighted Moving Average (.6,.3,.1) Actual Demand (At) Forecasted Demand (Ft) Raw Error Absolute Error Forecasted Demand (Ft) Raw Error Absolute Error Forecasted Demand (Ft) Raw Error Absolute Error 106.58 105.77 106.58 -0.81 0.81 110.29 106.50 3.79 3.79 106.18 4.12 4.12 99.55 106.88 -7.33 7.33 108.03 -8.48 8.48 108.56 -9.01 9.01 93.87 106.15 - 12.28 12.28 104.92 -11.05 11.05 103.39 -9.52 9.52 104.92 96.71 97.22 7 8 3 3 4 5 9 10 6 6 11 12 13 14 Indicates no forecast or no actual demand data - must not be included in error calculations In errors MAD MSE MAPE 4 6.05 73.14 5.86% n errors MAD MSE MAPE 3 7.88 105.47 7.64% n errors MAD MSE MAPE 2 9.27 171.94 8.98% 15 16 17 18 19 Best method of the 3 evaluated based on all 3 error metrics. This example is for illustration purposes only - having so few periods for which error is available may bias our conclusions. This comparison is more appropriate for the 52 week data set. 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Forecast error metric calculations (MAD, MSE & MAPE) for the data from the in-class exercise worked by hand. Please explain your answers. Thanks