Question: A company is considering introducing a new product. The basic decisions are to produce the product in mass volume, medium volume, or do not produce
A company is considering introducing a new product. The basic decisions are to produce the product in mass volume, medium volume, or do not produce it at all. For market research, they have the option of conducting a pilot study at a cost 9,000,which can turn out to be successful or unsuccessful, with an equal chance. The company can expect to make 300,000 and 200,000, respectively, from mass and medium production if the market is favourable. However, if the market is unfavourable, they estimate that they would lose 90,000 and 30,000 with mass and medium production, respectively. The probability of a favourable market given a successful pilot study is 0.7. The probability of an unfavourable market given an unsuccessful pilot study result is estimated to be 0.8. Of course, the company could go ahead with the basic decisions without conducting the pilot study. In this case, they estimate that the probability of a successful market is 0.7.
You should show all profit/loss for each branch of the decision tree and your calculations (the Expected Monetary Values) for each decision and chance node by considering costs at the end of each branch.
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