Question: A contractor is performing work in a coastal area which is subject to destructive hurricane conditions. During the course of the construction work he has

A contractor is performing work in a coastal area which is subject to destructive hurricane conditions. During the course of the construction work he has to provide storage for his equipment for a week. The contractor can either leave the equipment on site or he can move it to a hurricane-safe storage place.

Option 1:Move the construction equipment away from the ocean line, store it at a safe place, and then move it back after the hurricane at a total cost of $42,500.

Option 2:Leave the equipment on site but elevate it from the ground with a platform, thus protecting it from damage by the hurricane. A minor hurricane will not damage the equipment in this case but a major hurricane does damage the 400,000 equipment. The total cost of building the elevated platform is $30,000.

Option 3:Leave the equipment on site and do not build a platform. The equipment, which cost $400,000, will be destroyed by either a minor or major hurricane if it is left unprotected on site.

Based on the historical data of the same time period, the probabilities of a hurricane are as follows: No Hurricane: 70%; Minor Hurricane: 25%; Major Hurricane: 5%.

Run a simulation for 20 years using the following scenarios: (1) No elevated platform is built; (2) An elevated platform is built; (3) The equipment is moved and provide answers to following questions:

  1. Average annual cost if a platform is built?
  2. Average annual cost if no platform is built?
  3. Average annual cost if the equipment is moved?
  4. What decision the contractor should take?

Please use the following random numbers for determining the weather conditions (i.e. No Hurricane, Minor Hurricane, Major Hurricane)

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
58 98 34 58 83 61 4 87 69 98
Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20
79 30 28 81 52 75 54 64 28 30

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