Question: A dam is constructed so that flood levels will flow over the top on average once every 20 years. When the water reaches this level,

A dam is constructed so that flood levels will flow over the top on average once every 20 years. When the water reaches this level, it's called an "exceedence".

a) what is the probability of 5 exceedences in the next 50 years?

b) What is the probability of having ANY exceedence in the next 20 years?

c) What is the probability of having one exceedence in the next 20 years? Explain why the number you present makes sense.

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