a$.$ Develop a linear trend equation for the following data on demand for white bread loaves at a bakery $($use of Excel's Trendline, with Display Equation on Chart option, is recommended$),$ and use it to forecast demand on day $16.$

$\backslash$table$[[$Day$,$Loaves,Day,Loaves,Day,Loaves$],[1,200,6,232,11,281],[2,214,7,248,12,275],[3,211,8,250,13,280],[4,228,9,253,14,288],[5,235,10,267,15,310]]$

b$.$ The variations around the linear trend line seem to have above$-$ and below$-$the$-$line runs. Therefore, use trend$-$adjusted exponential smoothing with $=0\mathrm{.}2$ and $=03$ to model the bread demand. Use the first four days to estimate the smoothed initial trend that you use for periods $4$ and $5($use the increase from day $1$ to day $4$ divided by $3).$ Also, use $A_4$ to estimate $S_4.$ Start forecasting day $5.$ What is the forecast for day $16?$