$($a$)$

Given the following historical data, which do you think would be better to use? $($Round answers to $2$ decimal place, e$.$g$.15\mathrm{.}25)$

Forecasts using $a=0\mathrm{.}1,$ MAD

Forecasts using $a=0\mathrm{.}7,$MAD

Using

provides a better historical fit based on the MAD criterion.