Question: A manager has been using a certain technique (Forecast 1) to forecast demand for gallons of ice cream for the past 3 periods. The manager
A manager has been using a certain technique (Forecast 1) to forecast demand for gallons of ice cream for the past 3 periods. The manager is thinking of using Forecast 2 instead of Forecast 1 in the future. Calculate and state the MAD for each forecast and based on the MAD calculations, should the manager use Forecast 1 or Forecast 2 and state the proper reasoning? Note: MAD = mean absolute deviation. Select the correct answer.
| Period | Actual | Forecast 1 | Forecast 2 |
| 1 | 90 | 99 | 100 |
| 2 | 100 | 85 | 80 |
| 3 | 91 | 87 | 99 |
| MAD of Forecast 1 is 107.33; MAD of Forecast 2 is 188; Since the MAD of Forecast 1 is less than the MAD for Forecast 2, Forecast 1 is the best and most accurate forecast to use. | ||
| MAD of Forecast 1 is 18.33; MAD of Forecast 2 is 12.67; Since the MAD of Forecast 2 is less than the MAD for Forecast 1, Forecast 2 is the best and most accurate forecast to use. | ||
| MAD of Forecast 1 is 9.33; MAD of Forecast 2 is 12.67; Since the MAD of Forecast 1 is less than the MAD for Forecast 2, Forecast 2 is the best and most accurate forecast to use. | ||
| MAD of Forecast 1 is 9.33; MAD of Forecast 2 is 12.67; Since the MAD of Forecast 1 is less than the MAD for Forecast 2, Forecast 1 is the best and most accurate forecast to use. |
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