A. Olde World's sales manager must make purchasing plans for the private-label products Olde World sells. One of the items the company stocks is SunPro, an add-on that customers buy to spray on their windows and doors for UV protection. The sales of this item are seasonal, with peaks in the spring, summer, and fall months. Demand (in cases) for the past 12 months at Olde World is listed in the following table.

Month	Sales	Month	Sales ($)
January	2,000	July	5,000
February	2,800	August	5,400
March	3,200	September	6,000
April	3,900	October	5,000
May	4,300	November	3,800
June	4,900	December	3,300

1. Based on the numbers in the table above, forecast the sales (by month) from March through December using a 2-month weighted moving average. Use the weights of .75 and .25, giving more weight to recent data.

1. Forecast the sales for the months of March through December using exponential smoothing with = 0.7, beginning with an initial forecast in January of $3,000 and starting error measurement in March.

1. Using the mean absolute deviation (MAD-Measurement of the dispersion of forecast errors)as your performance criterion (with error measurement beginning in March), compare the two forecasting methods you used in A and B. Which method would you recommend as a more reliable predictor? Why?

1. Using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE - Measurement relating to the forecast error to the level of demand))as your performance criterion (with error measurement beginning in March), compare the two forecasting methods you used in A and B. Which method would you recommend as a more reliable predictor? Why?