A particular forecasting model was used to forecast a six-month period. Here are the forecasts and actual demands that resulted: April May June July August September FORECAST 244 318 393 343 368 443 ACTUAL 195 254 338 296 334 403 a. Find the tracking signal for each month. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answers to the nearest whole number.) Month Tracking Signal April May June July August September b. Does the model used here give acceptable answers? No, the model's performance is poor. Yes, the model's performance is good. The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows: YEAR 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CASES OF MERLOT WINE 302 388 430 488 390 532 442 408 Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.20, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of 2012. Use the average demand for 2005 through 2007 as your initial forecast for 2008, and then smooth the forecast forward to 2012. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to the nearest whole number.) Forecast for 2012 Assume that your stock of sales merchandise is maintained based on the forecast demand. If the distributor's sales personnel call on the first day of each month, compute your forecast sales by each of the three methods requested here. June July August ACTUAL 150 190 220 a. Using a simple three-month moving average, what is the forecast for September? (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Forecast for September b. Using a weighted moving average, what is the forecast for September with weights of 0.30, 0.40, and 0.30 for June, July, and August, respectively? (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Forecast for September c. Using single exponential smoothing and assuming that the forecast for June had been 132, forecast sales for September with a smoothing constant alpha of 0.20. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Forecast for September