A$.$ Plot the demand for years $1$ to $4$ for both products $($Clear Plastic and Black Plastic$).$ What forecasting approaches do you recommend for predicting the demand for each product? Why? $(10\%)$

B$.$ Use Holt's model to forecast the quarterly demand for Clear Plastic for years $5$ and $6.$ What is the Mean Squared Error $($MSE$)$ for quarter $16?$ Calculate the values of the Tracking Signal $($TS$)$ for all quarters of years $1$ to $4$ and plot them. Is the forecast biased assuming the thresholds of $\backslash$pm $4?$ Why? $(30\%)$

C$.$ Apply Winter's model to forecast the quarterly demand of Black Plastic for years $5$ and $6$ assuming alpha$=0\mathrm{.}1,$ beta$=0\mathrm{.}1,$ and gamma$=0\mathrm{.}1.(30\%)$

D$.$ Optimize the values of the smoothing constants for the Black Plastic forecast based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation $($MAPD$)$ value for quarter $16.$ When the smoothing factors in Winter$$s model are set to zero, the forecast will be the same as the result of which other forecasting model? $(30\%)$

year Quarter Clear Plastic Demand$(1000$lb$)$ Black Plastic Demand$(1000$lb$)$

$1$ I $62054368$

II $55006368$

III $70458759$

IV $73436734$

$2$ I $87515305$

II $88377811$

III $992110401$

IV $99728361$

$3$ I $104636529$

II $118868743$

III $1175710935$

IV $133099300$

$4$ I $137617647$

II $143679171$

III $1484311324$

IV $1565110364$