Question: A project's expected return is 22%, which represents a 34% return in a boom, a 11% return in a normal, and a 5% return in

A project's expected return is 22%, which represents a 34% return in a boom, a 11% return in a normal, and a 5% return in a stagnant economy. What is the probability of a boom if these are the only three economic states and the probability of a stagnant economy is 18%?

52.52%
63.03%
42.02%
31.51%

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