A publisher is considering whether to produce e$-$book for a subject at the postgraduate

level or not. If the market for e$-$book is favorable, then the return is $$180,000,$ but if the

market for the e$-$book is unfavorable, then the loss is $$80,000.$ The publisher estimates

that the probability of a favorable market is $0\mathrm{.}8.$

The publisher is considering the possibility of using marketing research to gather

additional information about the market. Either a survey or a pilot market test can be

used. The publisher is not sure if the value of the survey or the pilot test is worth the cost.

The survey will cost $$10,000.$ The probability of a favorable survey result given a

favorable market is $0\mathrm{.}75,$ and the probability of a favorable survey result given an

unfavorable market is $0\mathrm{.}2.$

The pilot market test will involve producing several chapters of the e$-$book and actually

trying to test it in courses. It will cost $$20,000.$ The probability of an unfavorable pilot

test result given an unfavorable market is $0\mathrm{.}9,$ and the probability of an unfavorable pilot

test result given a favorable market is $0\mathrm{.}15.$

What is the best decision for the publisher? Draw a decision tree to make decision.