A regional limousine service examined their routes for the past 15 weeks. The data provides a record
Question:
A regional limousine service examined their routes for the past 15 weeks. The data provides a record of the total miles drive in each week.
Week | Miles |
1 | 21,000 |
2 | 25,000 |
3 | 24,000 |
4 | 26,000 |
5 | 22,000 |
6 | 25,000 |
7 | 24,000 |
8 | 24,000 |
9 | 22,000 |
10 | 24,000 |
11 | 23,000 |
12 | 24,000 |
13 | 23,000 |
14 | 22,000 |
15 | 24,000 |
a) Compute the forecasts using the four-period moving average. What is the MAPE?
b) Compute the forecast for Week 16 using the four-period moving average.
c) Compute the forecasts using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.15 and a forecast for Week 1 of 20,000. What is the MAD?
d) Compute the forecast for Week 16 using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.15 and a forecast for Week 1 of 20000.
e) Compute the forecasts using linear regression using Excel’s slope and intercept function. What is the MAPE?
f) Compute the forecast for Week 16 using linear regression.
g) Create a tracking signal plot for the four-period moving average data. Does the chart indicate that this method accurately predicts the data (does the data fall within ± 4 MAD)?
h) Comparing one of the error measurements (MAD, MSE, or MAPE) – which is the best forecasting method? Which is the worst forecasting method?
Income Tax Fundamentals 2013
ISBN: 9781285586618
31st Edition
Authors: Gerald E. Whittenburg, Martha Altus Buller, Steven L Gill