Question: A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities exceeded the firms capacity. The contractor must now make a decision

A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities exceeded the firms capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the two possible states of nature are as shown in the table below. Suppose after a certain amount of discussion, the contractor is able to subjectively assess the probabilities of low and high demand: P (low) = .3 and P (high) = .7.

NEXT YEAR'S DEMAND
Alternative Low High
Do nothing $ 50 * $ 60
Expand 20 80
Subcontract 40 70

* Profit in $ thousands. a-1. Determine the expected profit of each alternative. (Enter your answers in thousands. Omit the "$" sign in your response.)

Expected Profit
Do Nothing $ ?? thousands
Expand $ ?? thousands
Subcontract $?? thousands

a-2. Which alternative is best?

  • Do nothing

  • Expand

  • Subcontract

c. Compute the expected value of perfect information. (Enter your answers in thousands. Omit the "$" sign in your response.) EVPI $?? thousands

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