Question: A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities exceeded the firms capacity. The contractor must now make a decision
A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities exceeded the firms capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the two possible states of nature are as shown in the table below. Suppose after a certain amount of discussion, the contractor is able to subjectively assess the probabilities of low and high demand: P (low) = .3 and P (high) = .7.
| NEXT YEAR'S DEMAND | |||||
| Alternative | Low | High | |||
| Do nothing | $ | 50 | * | $ | 60 |
| Expand | 20 | 80 | |||
| Subcontract | 40 | 70 | |||
* Profit in $ thousands. a-1. Determine the expected profit of each alternative. (Enter your answers in thousands. Omit the "$" sign in your response.)
| Expected Profit | |
| Do Nothing | $ ?? thousands |
| Expand | $ ?? thousands |
| Subcontract | $?? thousands |
a-2. Which alternative is best?
-
Do nothing
-
Expand
-
Subcontract
c. Compute the expected value of perfect information. (Enter your answers in thousands. Omit the "$" sign in your response.) EVPI $?? thousands
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