Question: A stock price is currently $50. Its expected return and volatility are 12% and 30% p.a., respectively. What is the probability (under the Black-Scholes-Merton model
A stock price is currently $50. Its expected return and volatility are 12% and 30% p.a., respectively. What is the probability (under the Black-Scholes-Merton model assumption (1)) that the stock price will be greater than $80 in 2 years? Hint: Express this probability in terms of the cumulative distribution function (x) of the standard normal distribution, i.e., (x)=P[Zx] for ZN(0,1). In the famous Black-Scholes-Merton model (1973) the price of a stock (St)t0 at time t0 with initial spot price S0 (today at time t=0 ) is modeled by St=S0e(22)t+Bt
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