a ) The Survey of Financial Forecasters ( SFF ) publishes regularly long - term inflation forecasts
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Question:
a The Survey of Financial Forecasters SFF publishes regularly longterm inflation forecasts over the next five years. China and Euro area inflation rates are expected to be percent and percent per annum over the next year, respectively, and later on Chinese European inflation rate is projected to rise at an annual growth rate of Based on the purchasing power parity PPP relation, what would be CNYEUR exchange rate estimate over five years, if the current spot rate is
b Suppose that SFF forecasts are accurate for the next year same as in part a however they are less reliable for longer horizons. Instead, you use a nave random walk model to forecast inflation beyond one year year to year Note that inflation follows a random walk, not the consumer price index! Based on the purchasing power parity PPP relation, what would be CNYEUR exchange rate estimate over five years, if the current spot rate is Compare your results to the forecasts obtained in part a
c Describe the Fisher Hypothesis and show what it implies under the assumption that both PPP and UIP parity relations hold.
This is the whole question, but i mainly need the complete solution for b
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