a) Using exponential smoothing, with a 5 0.6, then trend analysis, and finally linear regression, discuss which forecasting model fits best for Western Provincials strategic plan.

Justify the selection of one model over another.

b) Carefully examine the data. Can you make a case for excluding a portion of the information? Why? Would that change your choice of model? P

- Wesem Frovincial Trust Company is proud of its long ndition in Canada. It has becked the trend of financial and Ilqaks ity problems that has repeatedly plagued the industry. Deposits have increased sowly but surely over the years, despite recessions in 1983. 1988, 1991, 2001, and 2008. Management believes it is necessary to have a long-range strategie plan including a one-year forecast and preferably even a give-year forecast of deposits. They examine the past deposit data and also contrast it against the pre- vincial gross domestie product (GDP) over the same 44 years. The resulting data are in the following table: Year Deposits GDP Year Deposits GDP 612 215 1966 0.25 0.4 1988 1967 0.24 2.8 0.4 015 1989 1990 1968 0.24 435 29 1969 0.26 1991 6.1 0.7 0.9 3.4 3.8 0.25 1992 0.30 1.0 10.1 4.1 0.31 14 1993 1994 1995 15.2 4.0 0.32 1.7 4.0 18.1 24.1 0.24 1996 3.9 0126 25.6 3.8 1997 1998 1.) 30.3 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 O.RS 0.33 0.50 3.8 3.7 0.9 1999 16.0 1.2 2000 0.95 2001 31.1 31.7 38.5 4.1 1.70 4,0 2002 2003 1.6 4.5 2.8 1.5 20044 49.1 4.6 28 1.6 2005 55,8 1984 1985 2.7 3.9 2006 2007 70.9 4.6 1.9 2008 1986 1987 4 m la Shelles Shine with a 116, then trend analys