A=0.48 B=50 C=6 D=0.24

Year Demand 1 45 2 50 3 52 4 56 5 58 The number of surgeries performed at University Hospital has increased steadily over the past several years. The hospital's administration is seeking the best method to forecast the demand for such surgeries in year 6. The data for the past 5 years are shown. The hospital's administration is considering the following forecasting methods. Begin error measurement in year 3 so all methods are compared for the same years. 1. Use the Naive to estimate the number of surgeries in year 6. 2. Use the Exponential smoothing, with a = (A). Let the initial forecast for year 3 be (B). 3. Use (C)-year moving average. 4. Three-year weighted moving average, using weights (D) and (0.8-D), with more recent data given more weight. 5. Trend projection with regression. 6. Which forecasting method should it choose between the Nave and exponential smoothing? If MAD is the performance criterion chosen by the administration, 7. Which forecasting method should it choose between the Nave and exponential smoothing? If MAPE is the performance criterion chosen by the administration, 8. Which forecasting method should it choose between the Naive and exponential smoothing? If MSE is the performance criterion chosen by the administration. 9. By using your own words, what is the meaning of collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment? 10. How the Delphi method is used to make forecasting. (Non-anonymous question 11 No