Question: Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Immediate Predecessor(s) A 7 10 13 Start B 4 8 16 Start C 7 8 9 Start D 1 2

Activity

Optimistic

Most Likely

Pessimistic

Immediate Predecessor(s)

A

7

10

13

Start

B

4

8

16

Start

C

7

8

9

Start

D

1

2

4

B

E

7

10

11

A, C

F

4

6

7

D, E

G

1

3

6

D, E

H

1

5

7

F, G

I

1

4

6

G

J

3

5

9

H

K

3

3

3

H

a) Draw AON diagram showing ES EF, LS and LF; then find how long is the project to take?

b) What is the probability that the project will take more than 37 weeks?

Consider the path A-E-G-H-J. What is the probability that this path will exceed 37 weeks?

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