$($All answers were generated using $1,000$ trials and native Excel functionality.$)$

duration estimates $($in days$)$ for each activity.

$\backslash$table$[[$Activity$,\backslash$table$[[$Immediate$],[$Predecessors$]],\backslash$table$[[$Minimum$],[$Time$]],\backslash$table$[[$Likely$],[$Time$]],\backslash$table$[[$Maximum$],[$Time$]]],[$A: Negotiate contract with selected musicians,$-,5,6,9],[$B: Reserve site,$-,8,12,15],[$Logistical arrangements for music group,A$,5,6,7],[$D: Screen and hire security personnel,B$,3,3,3],[$E: Advertising and ticketing,B$,$ C$,1,5,9],[$F: Hire parking staff,D$,4,7,10],[$G: Arrange concession sales,E$,3,8,10]]$

hand, activity E cannot be started until activities $B$ and $C$ are both completed. The project is not complete until all activities are completed.

$($a$)$ Using the triangular distribution to represent the duration of each activity, construct a simulation model to estimate the average amount of time to complete the concert preparations.

Round your answers to one decimal place.

$\backslash$table$[[,$Project Duratic,$],[$Average$,24\mathrm{.}8,$days$],[$Standard Deviation,$1\mathrm{.}9,$days$]]$

$($b$)$ What is the likelihood that the project will be complete in $23$ days or less?

Round your answer to the nearest whole number