#) An engineering faculty is planning to organize a conference on renewable energy systems. The project...
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#) An engineering faculty is planning to organize a conference on renewable energy systems. The project team has come up with the following Risk Checklist and determined the occurrence probability and monetary impacts for each risk. RISK ITEM Probability of Occurrence Not being able to find enough number of sponsors Not being able to reach targeted number of participants Not being able to find a suitable conference venue Bad weather conditions on the day of the conference Having a similar event on the same week Not being able to find high caliber speakers to attract participants 0.200 0.300 0.150 0.100 0.050 0.200 Expected Impact (Monetary loss - S) 40,000 20,000 50,000 20,000 50,000 10,000 Perform a risk analysis using the simulation approach employing 60 replications. State your assumptions, if any. a) (10 points) State and explain your pseudorandom number generator method. b) (40 points) Report the mean and standard deviation of total impact. c) (10 points) Display through a histogram the distribution obtained for the total impact in intervals of 10.000$, i.e., 0- 10.000; 10.001-20.000; ..... State the interval representing the mode. d) (5 points) What is the probability that the expected total impact is 3.000$? e) (5 points) What is the probability that the expected total impact is 64.000$? f) (30 points) A colleague of yours suggests a mitigation means costing 12.000$, which will reduce the probability of occurrence of the third risk item by 50%. What would be your saving in expected total impact? Would you accept this proposal? #) An engineering faculty is planning to organize a conference on renewable energy systems. The project team has come up with the following Risk Checklist and determined the occurrence probability and monetary impacts for each risk. RISK ITEM Probability of Occurrence Not being able to find enough number of sponsors Not being able to reach targeted number of participants Not being able to find a suitable conference venue Bad weather conditions on the day of the conference Having a similar event on the same week Not being able to find high caliber speakers to attract participants 0.200 0.300 0.150 0.100 0.050 0.200 Expected Impact (Monetary loss - S) 40,000 20,000 50,000 20,000 50,000 10,000 Perform a risk analysis using the simulation approach employing 60 replications. State your assumptions, if any. a) (10 points) State and explain your pseudorandom number generator method. b) (40 points) Report the mean and standard deviation of total impact. c) (10 points) Display through a histogram the distribution obtained for the total impact in intervals of 10.000$, i.e., 0- 10.000; 10.001-20.000; ..... State the interval representing the mode. d) (5 points) What is the probability that the expected total impact is 3.000$? e) (5 points) What is the probability that the expected total impact is 64.000$? f) (30 points) A colleague of yours suggests a mitigation means costing 12.000$, which will reduce the probability of occurrence of the third risk item by 50%. What would be your saving in expected total impact? Would you accept this proposal?
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