Question: An investor is interested in developing a forecasting model for Company A' stock price and has collected the quarterly revenue data from 2010 to 2020.
An investor is interested in developing a forecasting model for Company A' stock price and has collected the quarterly revenue data from 2010 to 2020. Identify the moving average forecasting model among k = 2,3,4 and 5.
Identify the best exponential smoothing model among = 0.2, 0.25, 0.3, 0.35 and 0.4.
Develop a linear regression model without seasonal pattern.
Develop a linear regression model with seasonal pattern and without trend.
Develop a linear regression model with both seasonal pattern and trend.
Compare the final models developed in all 5 questions using the performance metrics.
Which of these models can be used to forecast the revenue for the next 4 quarters? Calculate and visualize the forecasts from the corresponding models.
| Revenue |
| 15683 |
| 13499 |
| 15700 |
| 20343 |
| 26741 |
| 24667 |
| 28571 |
| 28270 |
| 46333 |
| 39186 |
| 35023 |
| 35966 |
| 54512 |
| 43603 |
| 35323 |
| 37472 |
| 57594 |
| 45646 |
| 37432 |
| 42123 |
| 74599 |
| 58010 |
| 49605 |
| 51501 |
| 75872 |
| 50557 |
| 42358 |
| 46852 |
| 78351 |
| 52896 |
| 45408 |
| 52579 |
| 88293 |
| 61137 |
| 53265 |
| 62900 |
| 84310 |
| 58015 |
| 53809 |
| 64040 |
| 91819 |
| 58313 |
| 59685 |
| 64698 |
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