An operations analyst is forecasting this year's demand for one of his company's products based on the following historical data:

Year Number Sold

$4$ years ago $10,000$

$3$ years ago $12,000$

$2$ years ago $18,000$

Last year $20,000$

What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}2,$ if the forecast for last year was $15,000?$

Question $7$ options:

$20,000$

$19,000$

$17,500$

$16,000$

$15,000$