Analytics Exercise 18-1 (Algo) Starbucks has a large, global supply chain that must efficiently supply over 17,000 stores. Although the stores might appear to be very similar, they are actually very different. Depending on the location of the store, its size, and the profile of the customers served. Starbucks management configures the store offerings to take maximum advantage of the space available and customer preferences. Starbucks' actual distribution system is much more complex, but for the purpose of our exercise let's focus on a single item that is currently distributed through five distribution centers in the United States. Our item is a logo-branded coffeemaker that is sold at some of the larger retail stores. The coffeemaker has been a steady seller over the years due to its reliability and rugged construction. Starbucks does not consider this a seasonal product, but there is some variability in demand. Demand for the product over the past 13 weeks is shown in the following table. (week-1 is the week before week 1 In the table, -2 is two weeks before week 1, etc.). Management would like you to experiment with some forecasting models to determine what should be used in a new system to be implemented. The new system is programmed to use one of two forecasting models: simple moving average or exponential smoothing. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 45 36 34 55 32 28 58 46 35 26 57 42 WEEK -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 Atlanta 36 33 32 58 33 33 Boston 59 38 58 se 45 33 35 Chicago 54 25 65 38 42 42 45 35 28 35 54 43 33 46 41 47 44 56 22 65 43 34 42 54 33 26 26 50 47 65 38 47 65 33 45 43 53 45 91 30 25 66 61 46 41 Dallas 30 28 35 40 45 58 35 40 43 LA 40 40 45 35 35 38 43 46 47 45 66 42 35 39 42 45 50 50 Total 224 156 227 230 186 181 182 189 212 239 265 249 286 221 252 173 232 234 a. Consider using a simple moving average model. Experiment with models using five weeks' and three weeks' past data. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) 3-week MA Week ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Total 1 2 3 4 5 le 6 7 8 0 10 11 12 5-week MA Week CHI DAL LA Total 10 11 12 13 b. Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the 13 weeks using the overall (at the end of the 13 weeks) mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria. (Negative values should be Indicated by a minus sign. Round all answers to 2 decimal places. Enter "MAPE" answers as a percentage rounded to 2 decimal places.) ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Avg of DCs 3-week MA MAD MAPE TS 5-week MA MAD MAPE TS 1 2 13 14 5 A 7 8 9 ATL BOS