Analytics Exercise 18-1 (Algo) Starbucks has a large, global supply chain that must efficiently supply over 17,000 stores. Although the stores might appear to be very 3 similar, they are actually very different. Depending on the location of the store, its size, and the profile of the customers served, points Starbucks management configures the store offerings to take maximum advantage of the space available and customer preferences. Starbucks' actual distribution system is much more complex, but for the purpose of our exercise let's focus on a single item that Is currently distributed through five distribution centers in the United States. Our item is a logo-branded coffeemaker that is sold at some of the larger retail stores. The coffeemaker has been a steady seller over the years due to its reliability and rugged construction. Starbucks does not consider this a seasonal product, but there is some variability in demand. Demand for the product over the past 13 weeks is shown In the following table. (week -1 is the week before week 1 in the table, -2 is two weeks before week 1, etc.). Management would like you to experiment with some forecasting models to determine what should be used in a new system to be Implemented. The new system is programmed to use one of two forecasting models: simple moving average or exponential smoothing. 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 WEEK -5 -4 -3 - 2 -1 1 2 3 4 Atlanta 43 34 32 55 34 33 45 38 33 54 25 20 56 45 36 24 55 41 34 34 41 41 45 45 54 18 60 45 30 47 52 Boston 62 25 48 40 33 44 45 33 20 52 48 70 64 26 24 96 34 44 47 Chicago 58 20 68 43 68 63 50 40 38 43 42 Dallas 42 35 38 64 45 26 42 35 40 50 60 38 35 42 48 44 46 68 40 33 46 38 48 52 48 LA 43 41 53 45 239 247 194 173 196 182 210 243 268 246 196 225 255 174 241 230 Total 248 155 a. Consider using a simple moving average model. Experiment with models using five weeks' and three weeks' past data. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) 3-week MA Answer is complete and correct. BOS CH DAL LA Total Week ATL 49.00 45.33 226.67 1 40.33 40.33 51.67 35.67 44.00 45.00 39.33 204.67 2 40.67 38.33 187.67 3 37.33 33.67 40.67 37.67 183.67 4 38.67 36.33 32.67 34.33 41.67 38.67 35.00 39.00 44.67 196.00 5 38.674 38.67 36.33 32.67 34.33 41.67 183.67 38.67 38.67 35.00 39.00 44.67 196.00 41.67 42.33 40.00 41.67 46.00 211.67 7 37.33 43.67 56.67 50.00 52.67 240.33 8 points 33.00 48.00 50.67 59.33 51.33 252.33 9 33.67 39.00 53.33 63.67 47.00 236.67 10 40.33 44.00 38.00 60.33 39.67 222.33 11 45.67 41.00 48.67 51.00 39.00 225.33 12 35.00 45.00 51.33 42.67 44.00 218.00 13 38.33 40.67 58.00 40.33 46.00 223.33 5-week MA Answer is complete and correct. Week ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Total 1 39.60 41.60 46.60 44.80 44.00 216.60 2 37.60 36.00 44.00 41.60 42.40 201.60 3 39.80 37.80 46.60 43.00 42.60 209.80 4 41.00 36.40 37.00 42.40 41.60 198.40 15 36.60 36.60 38.80 37.60 41.40 191.00 16 40.60 39.00 39.60 38.60 43.00 200.80 39.00 41.20 44.60 45.40 49.60 219.80 8 34.00 45.20 50.80 50.60 49.20 229.80 9 37.60 40.60 52.00 56.20 46.20 232.60 10 40.00 44.40 46.40 58.20 46.60 235.60 11 36.40 44.40 56.00 56.20 45.00 238.00 12 36.20 41.40 48.80 51.80 41.00 219.20 13 43.20 40.00 44.80 46.80 43.40 218.2041.00 36.40 37.00 42.40 41.60 198.40 5 36.60 36.60 38.80 37.60 41.40 191.00 6 40.60 39.00 39.60 38.60 43.00 200.80 7 3 39.00 41.20 44.60 45.40 49.60 219.80 points 8 34.00 45.20 50.80 50.60 19.20 229.80 9 37.60 40.60 52.00 56.20 46.20 232.60 10 40.00 44.40 46.40 58.20 46.60 235.60 11 36.40 44.40 56.00 56.20 45.00 238.00 12 36.20 41.40 48.80 61.80 41.00 219.20 13 43.20 40.00 44.80 46.80 43.40 218.20 b. Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the 13 weeks using the overall (at the end of the 13 weeks) mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria. (Negative values should be Indicated by a minus sign. Round all answers to 2 decimal places. Enter "MAPE" answers as a percentage rounded to 2 decimal places.) x Answer is not complete. ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Avg of DCS 3-week MA MAD 11.56 MAPE 29.77 x TS (1.64) X 5-week MA MAD MAPE TS