Answer A.

2. (90 Points) You are a decision analyst at an Air Operations Center (AOC), is it your job to recommend strike packages to the commander. Intelligence just arrived with a ground target to attack. Your recommendations are limited the following: to send a large force, a small force or to delay the mission. The air defenses around the target are unknown at this point. The current intel estimates that there's 40% chance that the air defense level is Low, 35% being Medium and 25% High. The estimate causalities based on the commander's choice and the air defense level, described in the table below: The mission effectiveness, based on the commander's action and the air defense level are in table below: From previous interactions and conversation with the commander, you have determined to weight the casualties at 0.60 and effectiveness at 0.40. a. (30 pts) Build a decision tree to capture the decision problem. b. (30pts) Based on the decision tree and the resulting calculations, what is your recommendation to the commander? Keep in mind that the commander wants to minimize casualties while maximizing mission effectiveness. c. ( 30pts) The commander has the option to request further reconnaissance of the target area to determine the air defense level prior to making the decision. The additional reconnaissance is not perfect, the performance is listed the in table below. For example, given that the air defense level is low, there's a 50% chance that reconnaissance will report "low", 30% that it will report "Medium" and 20% it will report "High". What is the expected value of sample information for additional reconnaissance (in casualties \& effectiveness)