Question: answer both questions with explanation QUESTION 5[20 MARKS] As a consultant to an investment company trading in various currencies, you have been assigned the task

answer both questions with explanation

QUESTION 5[20 MARKS] As a consultant to an investment company trading in various currencies, you have been assigned the task of studying long term trends in the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar. Data from 1991 to 2020 are stored in the file Assignment Data-Currency, where the Canadian Dollar is expressed in units per U.S. dollar. By using Excel develop a) determine the best-fitting autoregressive model, using a significance level of 5%. Justify your answer by using hypothesis testing and using the p-value approach. Note: Start from a third order autoregressive model. (16 marks) b) Using the selected model forecast for 2021 and 2022. (4 marks)

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