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Problem Set #1: Time Series Forecasting

Consider the information and data presented in the textbook case study Specialty Packaging Corporation (pages 207-208 in the textbook). In the case study, Julie is asked to select the appropriate forecasting method for the two types of containers, and use that method to forecast demand for years 6-8. For this assignment, assume that Julie chooses to implement a time series model with level, trend, and seasonal components.

Create an Excel spreadsheet that fits a time series model (with level, trend, and seasonal components) for each type of container (i.e., one tab to forecast demand for black plastic containers and one tab to forecast demand for clear plastic containers). Include calculations necessary to determine forecast margin of uncertainty. Use your models to forecast future demand (for Years 6-8) for each type of container, including a margin of uncertainty. Assume that forecast errors are normally distributed.