Answer the following questions:

$1\mathrm{.}1(5$ points$)$ Please make a forecast for week $10$ using moving average $(3).$ Please also calculate

the mean absolution deviation $($MAD$)$ for this forecasting method

$1\mathrm{.}2(5$ points$)$ Please make a forecast for week $10$ using exponential smoothing $(0\mathrm{.}1).$ Please also

calculate the mean absolution deviation $($MAD$)$ for this forecasting method.

$1\mathrm{.}3(5$ points$)$ Using a Simple Linear Regression method, please make a prediction for period $10$

$($Hint: please use Anova table below to construct the equation for a fitted value$).$ Please also

calculate the mean absolution deviation $($MAD$)$ for this forecasting method.

$1\mathrm{.}3\mathrm{.}1(5$ points$)$ What $\%$ of variation in the data is explained by the model?

$1\mathrm{.}3\mathrm{.}2(5$ points$)$ What is the p$-$value of the slope $($week$)?$ Is there a significant relationship between

demand and time $($with a p value threshold of $5\%)?$

$1\mathrm{.}4.(10$ points$)$ Please determine the best forecasting model for the data above among MA$,$ ES and

LR$.$