Answer using Excel***

Brown's, a local bakery, is worried about increased costs-particularly energy. Last year's records can provide a fairly good estimate of the parameters for this year. Wende Brown, the owner, does not believe things have changed much, but she did invest an additional $4,000 for modifications to the bakery's ovens to make them more energy-efficient. The modifications were supposed to make the ovens at least 15% more efficient. Brown has asked you to check the energy savings of the new ovens (Calculate Labor, Capital Invested, Energy, and multifactor productivity) and also to look over other measures of the bakery's productivity to see if the modifications were beneficial. You have the following data to work with: LAST YEAR NOW Production (dozen) 1,500 1,600 Labor (hours) 350 325 Capital investment ($) 14,000 17,000 Energy (BTU) 3,000 2,500 Ross Hopkins, president of Hopkins Hospitality, has developed the tasks, durations, and predecessor relationships in the following table for building new motels. Draw the AON net-work and answer the questions that follow. Time Estimates (in weeks) Activity Immediate Predecessor(s) Optimistic (a) Most Likely (m) Pessimistic (b) A -- 4 8 10 B 2 8 24 C A 00 12 16 D A 4 6 10 E B 2 4 5 F E, C 6 8 20 G E, C 2 3 4 2 2 2 F 6 6 6 I 6 6 6 J D, G, H 4. 6 12 | I, J 3 5 7 A. (5 points) Draw AON diagram of the project, including activity durations. B. (4 points) Based on the calculation of estimated times, what is the critical path? C. (4 points) What is the estimated time of the critical path? D. (7 points) What is the activity variance along the critical path? What is the probability of completion of the project before week 38? Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop computers. The prices for the chip during the past 12 months were as follows: Month Price Per Chip ($) January 1.80 February 1.67 March 1.75 April 1.85 May 1.90 June 1.87 July 1.90 August 1.83 September 1.70 October 1.65 August 1.83 September 1.70 October 1.65 November 1.70 December 1.75 A. (3 points) Naive method and a 3-month moving average. B. (4 points) A 6-month weighted average using .1,.1,.1, 2, .2, and .3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months. C. (4 points) Compute the forecasts for each month using exponential smoothing, with an initial forecast for January of $1.80. Use a = .1, then a = .2, and finally a = = .4. D. (4 points) A trend projection. E. (5 points) Comparing MAD, MSE, and MAPE results, which forecasting method is the best? Sox Engineering designs and constructs air conditioning and heating systems for hospitals and clinics. Currently, the company's staff is overloaded with design work. There is a major design project due in 8 weeks. The penalty for completing the design late is $18,000 per week since any delay will cause the facility to open later than anticipated and cost the client significant revenue. If the company uses its inside engineers to complete the design, it will have to pay them overtime for all work. Sox has estimated that it will cost $16,000 per week (wages and over-head), including late weeks, to have company engineers complete the design. Sox is also considering having an outside engineering firm do the design. A bid of $82,000 has been received for the completed design. Yet another option for completing the design is to conduct a joint design by having a third engineering company complete all electromechanical components of the design at a cost of $55,000. Sox would then complete the rest of the design and control systems at an estimated cost of $35,000. Sox has estimated the following probabilities of completing the project within various time frames when using each of the three options. Those estimates are shown in the following table: Probability of Completing the Design 3 Weeks Option On-Time 1 Week Late 2 Weeks Late Late 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 Internal Engineers External Engineers Joint Design 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 What is the best decision based on an expected monetary value criterion