antar@mail.c Meeting - Zoom X Interactive Exercise 3 Class Operations Manag Problems prod.reader-ui.pro cation.com/pub/sn cbf0/data-Uuid-1885f9625e52497ea7c22caadc762648 Portal = M McGraw KCoe Careers Calendly - Office H. Gmail YouTube B Student Hom 21. Two different forecasting techniques (Fi and F2) were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are as follows: PREDICTED DEMAND Period Demand F1 12 1 68 66 66 2 75 68 68 3 70 72 70 4 74 71 72 5 69 72 74 6 72 70 76 7 80 71 78 8 78 74 80 Type here to search o gi 88F ETIUu 1 tilatie 1 68 66 66 2 75 68 68 3 70 72 70 4 74 71 72 5 69 72 74 6 72 70 76 7 80 71 78 8 78 74 80 a. Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? Explain. b. Compute the MSE for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? c. In practice, either MAD or MSE would be employed to compute forecast errors. What factors might lead a manager choose one rather than the other? 17 8.8F here to search hp Gmail YouTube : Student How o Portal E M McGraw KcoCareers O Calendly - Office H. 2. National Scan, Inc., sells radio freque...y inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows: Sales Month (000 units) Teb. 19 Mar. 18 Apr. 15 May 20 Jun. 18 Jul. Aug. 20 a. Plot the monthly data on a sheet of graph paper. Type here to search o EN 0 30F 1073V top 3. A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to forecast equipment usage at its main plant. August usage was forecasted to be 88 percent of capacity; actual usage was 89.6 percent of capacity. A smoothing constant of .1 is used. a. Prepare a forecast for September. b. Assuming actual September usage of 92 percent, prepare a forecast for October usage. 4. An electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Week 1 2 3 4 5 Requests 20 22 18 21 22 Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods: a. Naive b. A four-period moving average c. Exponential smoothing with a = -30; use 20 for week 2 forecast 5. A cosmetics manufacturer's marketing department has developed a linear trend equation that can be used to Page 127 predict annual sales of its popular Hand & Foot Cream. F, = 80+ 150 where - Annual sales on bottle Type here to search O @ 88'T de hp 4. An electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Weck 4 5 1 3 Requests 20 22 18 21 22 Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods: a. Najve b. A four-period moving average c. Exponential smoothing with a = 30; use 20 for week 2 forecast 5. A cosmetics manufacturer's marketing department has developed a lincar trend equation that can be used to Page 12 predict annual sales of its popular Hand & Foot Cream. Fi-80+ 154 where F, = Annual sales (ooo bottles) t is in years a. Are annual sales increasing or decreasing? By how much? b. Predict annual sales for year 6 using the equation. 6. From the following graph, determine the equation of the linear trend line for time-share sales for Glib Marketing, Inc. Type here to search O 0 8.8F pr. 1.) May 20 Jun. 18 Jul. 22 Aug. 20 a. Plot the monthly data on a sheet of graph paper. b. Forecast September sales volume using cach of the following: (1) The naive approach (2) A five-month moving average (3) A weighted average using.60 for August, -30 for July, and 10 for June (4) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 20, assuming a a March forecast of 19(000) (5) A linear trend equation c. Which method seems least appropriate? Why? (Hint: Refer to your plot from part a.) d. What does use of the term sales rather than demand presume? Type here to search 8.8F hp)