Apply a 1 period moving average forecasting model, and compute the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the forecasts for 1960 2015 Compare this to the RMSE of (1) the 3 period moving average model (from Q4), (2) an exponential smoothing model (from Q5) with alpha 0 95, and, (3) 3 period rolling regression model (from Q6) Based on these comparisons, does a more sophisticated model or a model that uses more information always lead to a better forecast as measured by the RMSE Group of answer choices Yes No 1960 39 869117 1961 40 307136 1962 41 731885 1963 44 037181 1964 45 788951 1965 47 234902 1966 50 035367 1967 52 597132 1968 54 306187 1969 56 285569 1970 59 186071 1971 58 04156 1972 58 937904 1973 58 241491 1974 56 330758 1975 54 733273 1976 54 722896 1977 55 100782 1978 55 074118 1979 58 005609 1980 59 007873 1981 58 529329 1982 57 457822 1983 54 415961 1984 58 849156 1985 57 538724 1986 56 575231 1987 57 166745 1988 57 874997 1989 57 482679 1990 58 559602 1991 57 871727 1992 57 655057 1993 55 822082 1994 58 043638 1995 57 540135 1996 58 387225 1997 58 856691 1998 59 314083 1999 57 614481 2000 57 366024 2001 58 541348 2002 56 833673 2003 56 032784 2004 55 942348 2005 55 044002 2006 55 937854 2007 56 435649 2008 57 587014 2009 56 670274 2010 58 206642 2011 60 549593 2012 62 302799 2013 64 201461 2014 69 652611 2015 70 220845

The Answer is in the image, click to view ...

Question: Apply a 1-period moving average forecasting model, and compute the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the forecasts for 1960-2015 . Compare this to the

Apply a 1-period moving average forecasting model, and compute the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the forecasts for 1960-2015. Compare this to the RMSE of

(1) the 3-period moving average model (from Q4),

(2) an exponential smoothing model (from Q5) with alpha = 0.95, and,

(3) 3-period rolling regression model (from Q6).

Based on these comparisons, does a more sophisticated model or a model that uses more information always lead to a better forecast as measured by the RMSE?

Group of answer choices

Yes

1960	39.869117
1961	40.307136
1962	41.731885
1963	44.037181
1964	45.788951
1965	47.234902
1966	50.035367
1967	52.597132
1968	54.306187
1969	56.285569
1970	59.186071
1971	58.04156
1972	58.937904
1973	58.241491
1974	56.330758
1975	54.733273
1976	54.722896
1977	55.100782
1978	55.074118
1979	58.005609
1980	59.007873
1981	58.529329
1982	57.457822
1983	54.415961
1984	58.849156
1985	57.538724
1986	56.575231
1987	57.166745
1988	57.874997
1989	57.482679
1990	58.559602
1991	57.871727
1992	57.655057
1993	55.822082
1994	58.043638
1995	57.540135
1996	58.387225
1997	58.856691
1998	59.314083
1999	57.614481
2000	57.366024
2001	58.541348
2002	56.833673
2003	56.032784
2004	55.942348
2005	55.044002
2006	55.937854
2007	56.435649
2008	57.587014
2009	56.670274
2010	58.206642
2011	60.549593
2012	62.302799
2013	64.201461
2014	69.652611
2015	70.220845

Step by Step Solution

There are 3 Steps involved in it

1 Expert Approved Answer

Step: 1 Unlock blur-text-image

Question Has Been Solved by an Expert!

Get step-by-step solutions from verified subject matter experts

Step: 2 Unlock

Step: 3 Unlock

Students Have Also Explored These Related General Management Questions!

Apply the wisdom of the crowd forecasting method, i.e., average the forecasts, from: (1) an exponential smoothing forecast model (from Q5) where alpha = .95, (2) the 3-period rolling regression model...

PLEASE USE EXCEL FOR ALL!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU! Year Fossil Fuel Production 1990 58.559602 1991 57.871727 1992 57.655057 1993 55.822082 1994 58.043638 1995 57.540135 1996 58.387225 1997 58.856691 1998...

Apply an exponential smoothing forecast model, compute the root mean squared error of the forecasts for 1960-2015 . Between the options below, which value of the smoothing parameter alpha achieves...

Suppose that we are interested in forecasting the unemployment rate. We use two models, Model 1 and Model 2, and would like to compare their relative performance. Using the same sample period, the...

Again, consider the US monthly macroeconomic data set used in Example 8.4, but use the unemployment rate (UNRATE) as the dependent variable. Apply a DL network to obtain forecasts in the testing...

please use excel and show formulas! thank you! 1. (2 points) Compute the moving-average forecast for the data in forecast data.xlsx, with a 3-day window. What is the forecast for 1/2/2016 ? 2. (2...

For Q 1 - 7 use the timeseries data for Fossil Fuel Production on the Fossil Fuel Tab. 1 . Apply a 3 - period moving average forecasting model. What is the forecast for 2 0 1 6 ? ( rounded to the 1...

1. Consider the following sales data for a local company. Year/Quarter Sales Year/Quarter Sales 2019 Quarter 1 68 2020 Quarter 3 350 2019 Quarter 2 75 2020 Quarter 4 45 2019 Quarter 3 218 2021...

CS 7641 CSE/ISYE 6740 Homework 3 Le Song Deadline: 11/07 Mon, 11:55pm Submit your answers as an electronic copy on T-square. No unapproved extension of deadline is allowed. Zero credit will be...

I have questions on "Chapter 17 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting. The questions is in the attachment; that are problem number 29 and 30 (it is on last three pages, not the multiple choice...

Able Inc. experienced the following events in 2013, its first year of operations: 1. Received $20,000 cash from the issue of common stock. 2. Performed services on account for $56,000. 3. Paid the...

What is the purpose of lean production?

In respect of the company s directors, what does the concept of stewardship mean ? Select one: Question 6 Answer a . They report suspected fraud and money laundering to the authorities b . They...

Financial Statements and Closing Entries Last Chance Company offers legal consulting advice to prison inmates. Last Chance Company prepared the end-of-period spreadsheet that follows at June 30,...