As we discussed on the first day of class, on July 26, 2022, the Invesco Solar ETF
Question:
As we discussed on the first day of class, on July 26, 2022, the Invesco Solar ETF (Ticker: TAN) closed at a price of $72.63/shr, and ran up to $85.57 in the ensuing 3 days. We attributed the lion's share of that dramatic price rise to the passage of the IRA in the US. One of TAN's largest holdings is SolarEdge Technologies (Ticker: SEDG), whose share price went from $296.48 to $360.13 over the same 3 days. According to YAHOO Finance the consensus earnings estimate for SEDG was/is $9.30 for 2023.
a) Suppose that, prior to the announcement, the analysts' consensus was that SEDG would be able to generate ROE of 25% for the ensuing 5 years, and would reinvest 100% of its earnings through 2027, but would start paying out 80% of its earnings as dividends starting in 2028. Assume that the 20% of earnings that are reinvested starting in 2028 can earn an ROE of 20%, and assuming SEDG's cost of equity was 9%, show that SEDG shares were approximately correctly valued at $296.48.
b) Now suppose that the announcement of the IRA caused analysts to reevaluate the growth opportunities of SEDG. Specifically, assume that analysts now upgraded the prospects for SEDG's longer-term ROE to 25%, but otherwise left their assumptions intact. Show that you can justify the jump in share price up to $360+/shr.
c) Finally, SEDG shares closed at $144.76 on Thursday September 14, 2023. Analysts' consensus earnings for 2024 is now $10.88, implying 17% growth. Now, assuming that analysts adjusted their near-term growth in earnings downward from 25% to 17%, and assuming that the entire price drop from $360.13 to $144.76 is attributable to a change in SEDG's cost of equity, as well as this ratcheting down of near-term growth, what was SEDG's approximate cost of equity as of Thursday September 14 (2 decimal places is sufficient in your answer)?
Financial Management for Public Health and Not for Profit Organizations
ISBN: 978-0132805667
4th edition
Authors: Steven A. Finkler, Thad Calabrese