Assignment 1 PROJECT VALUATION CASE NEW BALANCE1

It was 6:35 p.m. on a Friday as Michelle Rodriguez held her head in her hands and sought to regain focus. Her company, New Balance, based in Brighton, Massachusetts, recently implemented a work-life balance policy. She had just made the mistake of opening an email from the senior VP of product development, Monte Holliday, who needed a position report by Monday morning on one of New Balances most promising new athletic shoes. On the heels of the 2012 London Olympics, New Balance saw an opportunity in the 12- to 18- year-old male segment of the market, which their larger competitors had ignored. Established, well-known Olympic athletes like Usain Bolt already had multi-million dollar endorsement deals for athletic footwear, and they dominated the age 18 to 24 male market for running shoes.2 New Balance did not have the resources or the star power to compete in this segment. However, New Balance saw an opportunity to target younger consumers if they could craft an effective marketing and advertising campaign around the right athlete. Holliday and New Balance CEO Jim Davis had just returned from London after holding preliminary meetings with several potential new endorsers. The most promising was a 19-year-old phenomenon from Grenada named Kirani James. By winning gold in the 400-meter dash in London, James became the first runner outside the United States to win the event in over three decades.3 With a winning time of 43.94 seconds, he was also the first non-U.S. runner to finish the 400 under 44 seconds. Jamess victory was a huge feat for his country. Grenada had never won any Olympic medal, much less gold, and he returned home to a heros welcome. His relative youth, and the fact that many observers felt James was still improving, made him a likely contender for years to come. New Balance saw James as the perfect athlete to appeal to a younger audience, and Davis wanted him on board. As the afterglow of the Olympic flame faded, Davis knew they needed to act quickly to capitalize on Jamess new-found global fame. Despite the economic downturn and subsequent forecasts of the demise of athletic footwear, the multi-billion-dollar athletic footwear industry continued to grow steadily, if not spectacularly. A recent industry report claimed that 2012 would be the best athletic footwear market in over a decade. At the high end of the market, new high-tech shoes were coming out at a rapid pace. Air Jordan Retros, the Nike Mag Flux Capacitor, Reebok Pump Twilight Zone, and the Ewing 33 Hi were selling well. The highly anticipated LeBron Nike X Plus, due out in fall 2012 and forecast to retail for a staggering $315, incorporated technology and pressure/motion sensors that would track and store data on distance, speed, and jumping height. The shoe New Balance had designed for James was envisioned as a medium-tech, high-quality running shoe at a reasonable price of just under $200 retail. It would be marketed globally and had been tentatively dubbed Sneaker 2013 until a final name could be selected. The business case for Sneaker 2013 needed to be thorough and complete. It required sales and marketing, technology engineers, manufacturing, and finance input. The data were organized and thorough, and it was up to Rodriguez to come up with a compelling analysis and a recommendation about whether to proceed. She knew her boss and the New Balance CEO were excited at the idea of Sneaker 2013 and at having Kirani James as their newest athlete endorser. But she also knew that all the excitement and flash in the world could not make up for a project if the financials did not work.

Project Assumptions: The business case team compiled the following baseline information surrounding the Sneaker 2013 project: 1. The life of the Sneaker 2013 project was expected to be six years. Assume the analysis took place at the end of 2012. 2. The suggested price of the shoe was $160. 3. The global athletic footwear market in 2011 totaled approximately $74.5 billion and was expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.8% from 2011 to 2018, reaching $84.4 billion by 2018.4 4. Based on market research and analysis of other recent athlete endorsements, the New Balance marketing division estimated the following sales volumes for Sneaker 2013: Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Pairs sold (millions) 1.4 2.0 1.6 3.1 2.2 1.1 5. The 2016 number assumed Kirani James participated in the 2016 games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and won at least one medal. 6. For the first two years, the introduction of Sneaker 2013 would reduce sales of existing New Balance shoes as follows: Lost sales: 2013: $35 million 2014: $15 million Assume the lost revenue had the same margins as Sneaker 2013. 7. In order to produce the shoe, the firm needed to build a factory in Vietnam. This required an immediate outlay of $150 million, to be straight-line depreciated with the remaining value (salvage value) of $102 million. The factory would be then sold at the Project termination to other investors at the same amount $102 million. 8. The company must immediately purchase equipment costing $15 million. Freight and installation of the equipment would cost $5 million. The cost of equipment and freight/installation was to be straight-line depreciated over the Project duration with no any remaining salvage value. It was believed the equipment could be sold for $3 million upon project termination. 9. In order to manufacture Sneaker 2013, two of the firms working capital accounts were expected to increase immediately. Approximately $15 million of inventory would be needed quickly to fill the supply chain, and accounts payable were expected to increase by $5 million. By the end of 2013, the accounts receivable balance would be 8% of project revenue; the inventory balance would be 25% of the projects variable costs; and accounts payable would be 20% of the projects variable costs. All working capital would be recovered at the end of the project by the end of the sixth year. 10. Variable costs were expected to be 55% of revenue. 11. Selling, general, and administrative expenses were expected to be $7 million per year. 12. Kirani James would be paid $2 million per year for his endorsement of Sneaker 2013, with an additional $1 million Olympic bonus in 2016. 13. Other advertising and promotion costs were estimated as follows: Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 A&P Expense (millions) $25 $15 $10 $30 $25 $15 14. New Balance had already spent $2 million in research and development on Sneaker 2013. 15. The Sneaker 2013 project was to be financed using a combination of equity and debt. The New Balance discount rate for new projects such as this was 11%. 16. New Balances effective tax rate was 40%. Rodriguez was worried about the marketing approach for Sneaker 2013 targeting 12- to 18- year-old males. Recent market data showed the average age of athletic footwear purchasers to be just over 27 years, up from 24 three years earlier. This trend was expected to continue as the population aged. Success would depend on an effective marketing and advertising campaign that targeted not only the younger consumer, but which reached the ultimate purchaser who was more likely to be a parent. Questions and Grading: Please use the included Excel spreadsheet to perform the calculations and to answer the following questions (you can mark your answers in the Excel sheet but please indicate exactly which question your result refers to). 1. What is the projects initial (year 0) investment outlay? (1 point) 2. What are the projects annual net sale for the years 2013-2018? (6 points) 3. What are the projects operating income (EBITDA) for the years 2013-2018? (6 points) 4. What are the projects depreciation amounts for the years 2013-2018? (6 points) 5. What are the projects working capital for the years 2013-2018? (6 points) 6. What is the salvage value of the Project? (1 point) 7. What is the value of the taxes at the Project Termination as a result of differences between the salvage value and market value? (1 point) 8. What are the projects annual (years 2013-2018) net operating cash flows? (6 points) 9. What is the projects terminal (2018) non-operating net cash flow? (1 point) 10. Please estimate the projects payback, net present value, and internal rate of return. (1 point for each valuation method in total 3 points) 11. Please give your recommendation for this project. Should the Project be realized or not. Please provide a few arguments supporting your decision. (3 points).